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Abu Dhabi's production surge threatens a price war with Saudi Arabia and undermines the producer solidarity that has governed energy for six decades.
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With the JCPOA defunct and multiple mediation channels stalled, the risk of a return to open conflict grows by the day.
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Military confrontation in Yemen and the UAE's OPEC exit mark the end of a half-century partnership
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Structural damage to oil infrastructure means years of recovery and a floor under prices, regardless of diplomatic outcomes.
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With 1.6 million barrels per day of spare capacity set free, the cartel's grip on supply is fundamentally weakened.
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The surprise departure removes 3.5 million barrels per day from the cartel's quota framework, effective May 1.
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Washington combines military threats with back-channel diplomacy as Iran publicly denies talks but privately engages.
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A blockade, depleted munitions, and secondary sanctions on China risk reshaping the Middle East order.
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A 15-point diplomatic backchannel via Pakistan sends markets pricing the odds of de-escalation.
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Diplomatic pause ending soon with Brent crude swinging wildly on every hint of progress or collapse in Hormuz negotiations.
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The $27 billion sanctions dispute and uranium verification deadlock could trigger regional volatility and oil price spikes.